Bitcoin Deja Vu: History repeating itself with a familiar market pattern

Definition

STH Realized Price is the average price of the Short-Term Holder BTC supply, valued at the day each coin last transacted on-chain. This is often considered the ‘on-chain cost basis’ of this cohort.

STH MVRV Ratio is the ratio between the market value (MV, spot price) and the Realized value (RV, realized price) for the Short-Term Holder Cohort. This allows for a visualization of Bitcoin market cycles and the unrealized profitability of this cohort.

Quick Take

• For months, CryptoSlate has analyzed the transition from bear to bull market, and last week the metric we have been tracking flashed on our screen.
• After each bullish crossover of the STH cost basis above the LTH cost basis tends to be the end of the Bitcoin bear market.
• Now more than ever, it is time to be analyzing the behavior of the short-term holder cohort.
• As the STH supply continues to grow, this will have a knock-on effect on RP and MVRV ratio to continue to grow.
• The MVRV ratio is currently at 0.3, which means the current price is -70% below the market avg cost basis (STH BTC holder is underwater by -70%).
• As Bitcoin continues to consolidate, this will improve the cost basis for both STHs and LTHs.

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