Markets expect a 94% probability of rate hike: how will Bitcoin react to tomorrow’s FOMC meeting?

Quick Take

• Tomorrow is the next FOMC meeting, in which the markets have priced in a 25bps rate hike which would get the fed funds rate to 5.00 – 5.25.
• The market is pricing in a 94% probability of a 25 bps rate hike, all but confirmed.
• However, the FOMC meeting has been historically negative for Bitcoin price action.
• The price remained stagnant twice in the past nine FOMC meetings and dropped in the other seven.
• The last four FOMC meetings have seen negative price drops.
• Bitcoin is down 5% in the past five days, so has the price action led to the FOMC meeting?
• But ultimately, 2022 was the year of rate hikes, for the first time meaningfully since the 2008 cycle — which is why these events had such a negative influence.

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