Market has started to price in a 10% chance of a 25bps rate hike, due to jobs data

Quick Take

  • The U.S. unemployment rate moves down to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.
  • Payroll data came in at 253,000, with an expectancy of 185,000.
  • The market is currently pricing in a pause, but 25bps was not considered before today; now, there is a 10% chance.
  • This would take the fed funds rate to 5.25-5.50
Fed funds: (Source: CME)
Fed funds: (Source: CME)
Unemployment: (Source: Charlie Biello)
Unemployment: (Source: Charlie Biello)

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