Bitcoin’s drop to $25k coincides with peak in long-term holding

Quick Take

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SLRV) inversion occurred on August 13, preceding a notable drop in Bitcoin’s value to $25,000 just three days later. The SLRV Ratio, a pivotal measure in the crypto market, measures the percentage of Bitcoins that were last moved within 24 hours against those moved between 6-12 months prior. This ratio serves as an insightful indicator of market trends, particularly highlighting the balance between short-term activity and long-term holding.

In the current market climate, the ratio indicates a surge in long-term holders, with their supply hitting an all-time high. Meanwhile, short-term activity appears to be dwindling. This suggests a market phase dominated by patient long-term holders rather than speculators.

However, the ratio can also swing to the other extreme. A high SLRV Ratio signals an increase in short-term transactional activity, often associated with hype-driven adoption in the near term. An example of this dynamic was the downward trend of the ratio during the FTX collapse in November, implying heightened short-term activity.

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