Robinhood challenges Polymarket with election-linked contracts for US presidential race

Robinhood is broadening its offerings to attract more users by introducing investment contracts linked to the outcome of the November US Presidential election, according to an Oct. 28 statement.

Event-based derivatives trading allows investors to speculate on specific occurrences, such as election outcomes or economic policy announcements, without purchasing related assets. According to the firm, its contracts will allow people to engage in real-time decision-making and unlock a new asset class that democratizes access to events as they unfold.

Robinhood stated that its election-linked contracts will be open for trading until Nov. 8, with prices fluctuating between $0.02 and $0.99, driven by market sentiment. As Election Day approaches, the value of the contract for the winning candidate will rise, paying out close to $1.

The firm continued that each trader’s winning would be paid out on Jan. 8, 2025, after the presidential results are certified by the US Congress on Jan. 6, 2025.

The product will be rolled out to a limited number of US-based customers starting today.

Increased competition for Polymarket

Robinhood’s entry into the election contract market brings added competition to a space dominated by the decentralized betting marketplace Polymarket. Other platforms, such as BET on Solana and Trump Prediction Market Perpetuals on dYdX, offer election-related event-based options, creating an increasingly competitive market.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has lately faced added scrutiny over unproven concerns about market manipulation. Market observers have noted a rise in large-scale wagers favoring the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. However, market participation is typically hard to provably attribute to manipulation rather than pure free market mechanics.

CEO Shayne Coplan has addressed these allegations, defending Polymarket’s integrity and dismissing concerns about manipulation, although some market observers remain skeptical. He stated:

“Polymarket is strictly non-partisan. We get told we’re Dem operatives and MAGA, depending on the day. Unfortunately the story is much less juicy, we’re just market nerds who think prediction markets provide the public with a much needed alternative data source.”

As of the latest data, Polymarket’s election outcome market has seen approximately $2.5 billion in volume. Current odds suggest a 65% chance of winning for Trump, while his opponent Kamala Harris holds a 35% odds.

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